Democrats will Win unless Republicans Change Strategy

I'm a political independent. I vote issues. I refuse to vote party lines. There is no party that I find correct in all positions. For example, I tend to be financially conservative and socially progressive. But I am not strictly financially conservative. I am not strictly socially progressive.

I don't feel that I have a bias toward or against any party. That being said, I do have opinions about who is more likely to win.

The following analysis stems from a news story on the CBS News site. Polling on Pullout from Iraq.

The poll shows that Americans are 59 percent in favor of pullout and 37 percent against pullout.

I'm predicting that the next successful presidential candidate (i.e. the boy or girl who wins the job) will be a person who is anti-Iraq-war (and maybe anti-war-in-general).

The public knocked Republicans out of power in hundreds of localized races last election for not being anti-war enough. And localized elections are way less single-issue than nationalized elections. It's almost impossible to prevent the presidential election from nationalization.

Iraq is and has been, by far, the biggest issue for several years now. No social issue, no economic issue, and no security issue even came close. If we're still in Iraq by the next election, and people vote the big issue as they tend to do, I wouldn't be surprised to see the next president win by a similar margin to this poll.

59 to 37 is a monster of a landslide. And there will be a huge spillover effect into the Senate, House, and state and local races.

If Republicans win in 2008, it will not be because they've convinced people that staying in Iraq is right. A win will be because they've agreed that it's time to get out.

The Democrats are currently in a stronger war position. If the Republicans don't change their tune, then the Democrats will take the presidency and many more congressional seats. Many. And I would bet they would hold them for a long time. The WWII Democrats after FDR held Congress for FORTY YEARS. Mark my words. I don't care who the Democrats put up: Obama, Clinton, Biden, whomever. The Democrats could put up a donkey for the presidential election and it would win. (Assuming constitutional amendment.) If the Republican is pro-war/anti-redeployment, then the Republican will lose.

The funny thing is that the issue of staying in Iraq or getting out of Iraq is not inherently conservative or liberal. Just as abortion is not inherently conservative or liberal. The war sides have been chosen. The Republicans chose the wrong side, and I think the Democrats will win.

Whatever else the Democrats might be right or wrong about, from the political perspective they always play war smarter than the Republicans do or ever have done, from WWI, to WWII, to Vietnam, to Iraq. They vote for it when they perceive the necessity and they vote against it when it's time to be done.

I was right last time around. I'll be right again if Republicans don't switch strategies.

(I should note: Nebraska Republican Hagel was the only Republican who voted for the Democratic troop funding/pullout bill yesterday. He might have a shot at winning the presidency even if the Republicans otherwise lose the rest of the elections. But this would still hold in line with my prediction, so I am not qualifying any of my political forecasting.)